As you know, the people of France will have a chance to vote on the proposed EU constitution this weekend (Guardian Unlimited - Q&A: The French EU referendum). It is widely expected that they will reject the constitution and deal a blow to prospects for greater European integration. While many in this country might applaud a French rejection (TCS - A Hard Look at the European Constitution), some analysts are not so sure. Philip Gordon, Director of the Center on the United State and Europe, offers the following caution (Brookings - U.S. Has Big Stake in Europe's Constitution):
But Americans should hold their applause. In fact, a French rejection of the constitution would not only be a crisis for Europe, but a real setback for the US and beyond. At a time when the US desperately needs a strong, united and outward-looking European partner, a French No would produce the opposite. It would seriously undermine prospects for EU enlargement to include key American friends such as Turkey and Ukraine. It could lead to divisive, unworkable proposals for an EU "core group" that would exclude US allies in Britain and Eastern Europe. And it would be a major political victory for the anti-American, anti-capitalist, anti-globalisation activists who form a core part of the rejectionist camp.All of this will take place over the Memorial Day holiday weekend, when you return from your holiday this will have been decided. No matter how the vote goes it will have an impact on the conduct of American foreign policy. Is a united Europe in America's best interest?
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